Climate risk assessment
The greenhouse effect occurs when certain gases in Earth’s atmosphere trap heat from the sun, making the planet warmer than it would be without an atmosphere. This natural process is essential for maintaining conditions that support life on Earth.
However, human activities are altering this balance. Scientists worldwide have observed rising levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Excessive concentrations of these gases cause the atmosphere to trap more heat, leading to a gradual increase in Earth’s temperature.
Climate change is affecting the Mackay region with increased and/or more severe heatwaves, bushfires, floods, and storms. This puts extra pressure on our natural environment, health systems, communities, and infrastructure. With the population expected to grow, the demand for housing and services will make managing climate risks even more challenging.
Mackay Regional Council is taking proactive steps to address these challenges by creating comprehensive plans and initiatives to build local resilience. As part of this effort, we conducted a climate risk assessment to evaluate how climate change could impact our services, infrastructure, and community.
The insights from this assessment help us prioritise resources, identify additional actions as needed, and guide our future planning, policy development, and implementation measures to enhance community resilience and sustainability.
Get prepared for the future
To prepare Mackay for various climate futures in 2030, 2050 and 2090, we adopted two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that consider how global society, demographics, and economics might evolve overtime, affecting greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.
The first scenario we adopted is SSP3-7.0, where global emissions maintaining their current levels, with gradual reductions being introduced over time.
The second scenario SSP2-4.5 envisions significant effort and investment dedicated to reducing emissions on a global scale, resulting in levels that are considerably lower than those currently observed.
The climate and environment are changing
Based on future scenarios, five categories of climate-related hazards have been identified that may affect the region. Their potential impacts are expected to evolve in response to changes in climate and environmental conditions.
Bushfire
Bushfires in the Mackay region are expected to become more frequent and severe over time, with longer fire seasons and increased intensity driven by rising temperatures, drier conditions, and changing weather patterns.
Coastal hazards
Tropical cyclones in the Mackay region are projected to become less frequent but more intense, while sea levels are expected to rise significantly, leading to increased coastal erosion, shoreline recession, and more severe storm tide inundation events over coming decades.
Heat and heatwave
Extreme heat and heatwaves in the Mackay region are projected to increase in frequency, duration, and intensity over time, with hotter maximum and minimum temperatures and more days exceeding 35°C due to ongoing climate change.
Ocean warming
Ocean warming in the Mackay region is projected to continue, with sea surface temperatures rising significantly over coming decades and accompanied by increasing ocean acidity due to higher levels of dissolved carbon dioxide.
Storm, flooding and heavy precipitation
Rainfall and storms in the Mackay region are projected to become more intense and variable, with an increase in short-duration heavy rainfall events, uncertain changes in total annual rainfall, and a continued risk of severe thunderstorms and tropical cyclones.
Climate risks in Mackay
We identified 108 climate risks that we may be facing in the future (2030, 2050 and 2090) in council’s services and operations. We found that the climate risks increase over time in most cases. The largest number of risk descriptors relate to hazard group: heat and heatwave, coastal hazards, and storm, flooding and rainfall.
Please see page 5 to 15 of the summary report for more information.
Building a climate resilient region and council
We recognise the potential impacts that climate risks pose to our region, community, and Council operations. By proactively identifying these risks, Mackay can strengthen its resilience to both current and future challenges.
Council is building up internal staff capacity, we will ensure climate change considerations are and will continue to be integrated into our operations, including infrastructure, green spaces, water and waste management, as well as planning and policy development.
We will follow Queensland Climate Resilient Councils’ guideline and complete the Climate Risk Management Framework. This involves prioritising the risks identified, developing action plans to tackle the risks and continuing to monitor and evaluate our progress.
Additionally, we have and will continue to engage with stakeholders to address these risks and systematically monitor progress through continuous evaluation.
By following best practices in assessing and managing climate risks, Mackay Regional Council aims to increase the community's capacity to address future climate challenges. We are taking steps to support quality of life, encourage investor confidence in the region and its businesses, and pursue long-term sustainability.
To find out more about the Climate Risk Assessment project, see the summary report here: